İDLİB - Turkey withdrew from the military observation point in Şir Mağar, following its withdrawal from Morek in İdlib. Paramilitary groups that initially reacted to the withdrawal suddenly subsided into silence. It is known that Anti-Kurdish Turkey motivates these forces over new targets. 

 

Idlib which turned into an international crisis in Syrian Civil War is mobilized in terms of military these days. Conflict might resume between Russian backed regime forces and Turkey backed paramilitary groups, especially HTŞ. While it is noteworthy that Turkey is withdrawing from the military observation points around Idlib one by one, Russia is now bombing the city center from air and on the ground. Turkey's silent withdrawal brought back the discussions on negotiations with Russia on North and East Syria.

 

POSITIONS OF THE FORCES IN IDLIB

 

While there are forces of Russia, Iran and Syrian Army in Aleppo, Hama and Latakia and a vast majority of Idlib's countryside, Turkey backed groups like Heyet Tehrir El Şam'ın (HTŞ/El Nusra) are positioned in the city center and some parts of its surroundings. Turkey backed paramilitary groups are losing power day by day in the city.  The Syrian government forces, which took control of cities such as Han Sheikhun, Maret El Numan and Serakib last year, are preparing for a new operation to new places. 

 

TURKEY IS WITHDRAWING ITS FORCES

 

Russia had established 29 military observation points in scope of Astana. 12 of these observation points were controlled by Turkey while 10 were controlled by Russia and 7 were controlled by Iran. 8 of the Turkish observation points were under siege as a result of the operations of Syrian regime forces. Turkey which withdrew from the 9th military observation point in Morek, later withdrew from the 10th observation point in Şir Mağar and now it is withdrawing from the third point in Şêx Aqil, 8th point in Sirman and 7th point in Til Toqan.

 

TURKEY IS SILENT

 

Turkey's silent withdrawal from these observation points in İdlib attracts the attention to something else.  Turkey that made a lot of fuss about it, used to threaten UN, Europe and US with 'releasing the refugees'. The silent retreat from Idlib makes one think of a new Anti-Kurdish agreement. It is known that Turley is motivating the paramilitary forces to invade other places after they lost in İdlib.

 

While it is known that Turkey can not leave Idlib without the knowladge of NATO, it is being discussed that the changes in military tactics in İdlib was approved by US, Germany, France and Britain. While Turkey refuted the withdrawal so far, the developments in the region indicates a preperation to a new process. Turkey is establishing new military bases in their new locations. 

 

While the silence in Syria is expected to be disrupted with İdlib, it is said that the war may spread to other regions. While parties in İdlib are positioning themselves again, Russia is shelling the headquarters and camps of groups such as HTS and Faylaq al-Sham. Not satisfied with this, Russia is also shelling the Turkey backed paramilitary groups in the city center. On the other hand, it is stated that in addition to the militia forces affiliated with Iran, the Syrian regime is preparing to deploy troops to İdlib.

 

While there is a process in which the balances hang in the air not only in Idlib but throughout Syria, this situation is expected to change in the near future. It is stated that the policies to be followed by Biden and his team, who won the elections in the USA, may also affect the developments in Syria.

 

 

MA / Nazım Daştan