Russia's military operation against Ukraine continues on its second day. While the USA and European Union countries announced the economic sanctions they would impose on Russia, Russia declared that they would not harm the global economic system by advocating military action as a "must". NATO member countries regarding the developments in Ukraine will meet today via the teleconference system.

 

While the repercussions of this war of interests between the USA and Russia are expected to be reflected to the Middle East, especially in Syria and Iraq, Kurdistan National Congress (KNK) Executive Council Member Nilüfer Koç evaluated the consequences of Russia's operation in Ukraine and the possibilities of reflection of the war on the Kurds.

 

'EUROPE DOESN'T WANT TO BE INVOLVED IN THE WAR'

 

Koç stated that with the NATO summit held in June 2021, the USA expressed its policy of expansion in accordance with its own interests, while Russia tried to take control around Ukraine by sending warships to the Black Sea after the summit, and that it finally came down to military intervention. Stating that the forces within NATO are not on the same page about the war, Koç said, “The USA wants to overcome its systemic crisis. In other words, in the current situation, there is a serious crisis in politics both in the Middle East and the Caucasus. So it has too many rivals and can't cope with all of them. For this reason, it is trying to overcome it by acting with Europe, not on its own. But Europe does not want to get involved in this war." 

 

‘THE PROBLEM IS NOT JUST THE NATURAL GAS’

 

Stating that the reason why the European countries, especially Germany and France, did not consent to the war, is not only because they were dependent on Russia for natural gas. Russia was included in Europe as a continent and is an effective power in this continent. Koç said, “U.S. under the umbrella of NATO, dragged Europe into a war that it did not consent to. This looks like a very dangerous process because there is no power in NATO that is in favor of this war, especially Germany and France. Except for England. Russia, on the other hand turned towards offence. In other words, Russia carried out a defense policy that intervened in other borders, namely its own neighboring borders, in order not only to protect its own territory, but also to protect its own borders."

 

TURKEY'S UNSTABLE POLICIES

 

Underlining that Turkey's policy of playing for both sides came to a dead end with the Ukraine crisis, which is experienced as a war of hegemony, Koç said, "Turkey has implemented such a double-standard policy with both sides in Syria, Iraq and a few places in the Middle East. Now the war has clarified the fronts. As a matter of fact, Turkey has an obligation to clarify its position because Turkey has an obligation to be a NATO member. As a matter of fact, NATO is now at war. Now, how much can Turkey turn against Russia? Russia also has an ace up its sleeve against Turkey. In particular, there is a possibility of pressure in Turkey's Syria policy. In this sense, it is the country in the most critical position. Now, will the aggressive policy led by AKP-MHP allow the passage of Russian warships in the Black Sea or not? If it does, what will it be like with NATO? If it doesn't, how it will effect the relationship with Russia? On the other hand, there is a situation where Russia is increasing its influence around Ukraine against Turkey. In this respect, we can say that the obvious defeated side of this war is the unstable policy of the Turkish state." 

 

'PANDORA'S BOX HAS BEEN OPENED FOR EUROPE'

 

Stating that the Pandora's box has opened for Europe with the Ukraine war, Koç said: "Seeing that the crisis in which the USA entered could not be resolved and the system entered a bigger crisis, Biden decided to act together with other powers. Now, Biden has been pressing Europe in terms of both trade and politics through anti-Russia, anti-China policies for a long time. If you have noticed, the German Chancellor first wanted to meet with Biden and prevent this war. Then France took on a role, but they did not get any results. So the war has begun. If it continues, it will affect Europe a lot, as Europe will become a center of war. It is not a very big and conventional war, but it will spread the instability. That's what I meant when I said Pandora's box."

 

'TURKEY MAY WANT A CONCESSION'

 

Noting that one of the battlefields that Russia will fight against the USA in a possible war will be on Syria, Koç said the following about the possibilities in the region: “The USA and Russia are fighting a war of benefits over Syria. While Turkey is also marketing itself on Ukraine, these forces can press Turkey over Syria. In terms of Turkey, this can be considered as an opportunity. Turkey creates its policies over hostility against the Kurds. Since this is a state strategy, Turkey will develop the changing balances around this policy. In other words, Turkey will want a concession on the basis of this anti-Kurd policy in the Ukraine crisis, in the balance it will develop over Ukraine with both the USA and Russia. It will want this most in Syria, where both hegemonic powers are in contact. Of course, at the same time, they can base on a greater expansion in Southern Kurdistan. In this respect, the situation is dangerous for the Kurds.”

 

'KURDS MUST DECIDE ON ITS MOVE'

 

Pointing out that the Kurds should be very careful with their defense policies, Koç said: “Otherwise, Turkey may trick them and launch an attack by taking advantage of the political situation. The reason for this is the fact that Turkey has been experiencing defeat after defeat against the Kurds for the past year. As a matter of fact, Syria can become the center of negotiations with the Ukraine war. Turkey can take advantage of this and apply to different methods. In that respect, as Kurds, we need to be very vigilant. So it's not just for the Kurds of Northern and Eastern Syria. Kurds in four parts of Kurdistan need to be very aware. In order for the balances not to turn against us, we need to initiate a multi-faceted and multi-titled diplomatic discussions and diplomatic moves. Both with the western front and the so-called eastern front with Russia.”

 

'KURDS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY'

 

Stating that the Kurds have the opportunity to develop diplomatic relations with both powers, Koç noted that the Kurds are not a force to be ignored, and that they introduce themselves as the third power.

 

THE SYSTEM SUGGESTED BY THE KURDS

 

Emphasizing that Russia and the USA, which is in a war of interests, can only achieve results with the Third Path policy offered by the Kurds to the world, Koç said, “New constitutions that accept the autonomy of the Kurds can only find results with states that have assumed a democratic character. Otherwise, this crisis seems to press the USA even more. This Ukraine war may buy some time from the systemic crisis of the USA, but it will not yield any results because, as you know, China is somehow involved in this war. India is also in the middle in this regard. In other words, in this war, the USA is not only faced with a single rival, but also with hundreds of them. For this reason, it should not repeat the mistake made by England and France in the last century in order to maintain its own power. In other words, the Kurds, who build democracy in the first place, should recognize their right to determine their own rights. Otherwise, the Middle East crisis will deepen their crisis even more.”

 

'THEY HAVE A THIRD WAY IN THIS CENTURY'

 

Stating that the Kurds were victims in the first and second wars of interests, but such a process will no longer take place, Koç said, “Now in this century, all Kurds are in contact with the Third Path alternative of Leader Abdullah Öcalan. Everyone knows that Turkey's weak spot is the Kurds. In this respect, we should focus on the developments from the perspective of big states. In other words, if you are organized in this world, if you have a strong social base and if you have a dialogue with serious forces and Kurds have all these, it is possible to get results for the Kurds. It is necessary to be extremely vigilant and pay attention to diplomatic initiatives. Of course, first of all, we need to ensure our own safety."

 

MA/ Selman Güzelyüz