MERSİN - Stating that what's happening in Ukraine right now is one of the battles for the new world order, International Relations Specialist Hasan Sweidan told that a possible war that could break out in the region will effect all of Syria, especially Rojava.

 

The crisis that started, or triggered in Ukraine is inflamed upon the interests of international powers. Despite the US-based NATO's move to siege Russia militarily, the possibility of Russia's hot conflict with Ukraine, forces many countries, especially Turkey, to take a clear position against the various powers in question.

 

International Relations Specialist, Lebanese writer Hasan Sweidan evaluated the tension of international powers over Ukraine. 

 

THERE ARE VARIOUS REASONS FOR THE CRISIS

 

Rusya ile Ukrayna arasındaki gerilimin birçok nedeninin olduğunu söyleyen Swedidan, Rusya için NATO'nun kendi sınırlarına doğru genişlemesinin bir milli güvenlik sorunu olarak görüldüğünü ve göründüğü kadarıyla, NATO’nun Moskova’ya dakikalar içinde ulaşabilecek silah ve füzeleri konuşlandırma amacının olduğunu kaydetti. Sweidan,  “Ayrıca Ukrayna'nın NATO'ya katılması Karadeniz'deki güç dengesini etkileyebilir ve bu Rusya için kabul edilebilir değil. NATO'nun ise Rusya'nın yakın coğrafi çevresine genişlemesi, Rusya'nın yaşamsal alanını daraltacak ve bu da Rusya'nın orada jeostratejik hedeflerine ulaşma olasılığını azaltacaktır” diye konuştu.

 

Stating that there are various reasons for the crisis in Ukraine, Sweidan said: "For Russia the expansion of NATO towards its borders is considered a national security threat since NATO will be able to deploy weapons and missiles which could reach Moscow in minutes. In addition to that, if Ukraine joins NATO this may affect the balance of power in the Black Sea and Russia can not approve that. Also, the expansion of NATO into Russia's immediate geographic vicinity will narrow the Russian vital space which reduces the possibility of Russia achieving geostrategic goals there."

 

BATTLE FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER

 

Noting that the main reason for the tension between the USA and Russia is the war for a new world order, Sweidan stated that the tension in question is also due to international factors. Sweidan listed these factors as follows: "First, Russia believes now is the most suitable time to get concessions from the U.S. since the current American leadership is weak and busy in so many other areas and can not risk going into a new clash. Second, the Chinese-Russian relations are at their highest level and both powers are being challenged by the U.S. For that, due to the current global power challenge China will back Russia’s stance, unlike what happened in 2014 when Russia entered Crimea. Third the European powers are divided in their opinions on how to face Russia. This is mainly due to the several interests they have with Russia especially in the energy sector. Germany and France are some of the states that oppose any escalation of tensions with Russia. Russia provides 46.8% of EU’s gas needs. Germany gets 50% of its gas from Russia while France gets 24% of its gas from Russia."

 

IT WILL EFFECT EUROPE AS A WHOLE

 

Stating that the crisis that could possibly occur in Ukraine will effect Europe as a whole, Sweiden said: "European countries know that any escalation in Ukraine will affect all of Europe since the tensions will occur in Europe and Russia will react to many NATO countries. So, what affects French and German stances are security and economic reasons mainly. As for the U.S., it considers this battle a battle for maintaining what is left of its hegemony. It knows China is on the rise and can not let another power share the influence in Europe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the U.S. and its European partners shaped European Security and it can not let Russia change the situation. In brief, what is happening is one of the battles for a new world order."

 

'TURKEY HAS NO CHANCE OTHER THAN NEUTRALITY'

 

Sweidan pointed out that Turkey has no other option than to be neutral in its current position. Sweiden said: Turkey has no other choice rather than to be neutral. It knows that assisting one party over the other will have great consequences on it. President Erdogan is facing tough conditions internally and can not risk entering in a fight with neither Russia nor the U.S. It is important here to say that this is the stance of most Middle Eastern countries, including “Israel”. They have many interests with Russia and thus taking a stance in a situation affecting Russia’s national security will have great consequences Turkey cannot afford now."

 

'US IS SENDING MESSAGES TO TURKEY'

 

Stating that both Russia and the USA are aware of the importance of Turkey in a possible war, Sweidan said: "Russia and the U.S. know the importance of Turkey in any war between the two powers and that is why the U.S. is trying to attract Turkey while Russia is trying to maintain its good relations with it. It seems that Russia is pleased with Turkey’s current stance, although it criticizes it for selling UAVs to Ukraine. President Putin welcomed President Erdogan’s invitation for negotiations around the crisis. As for the U.S., it wanted much more for Turkey and that is why the U.S. in the past weeks have been trying to send Turkey many messages that it is ready to cooperate in some areas, including Syria and the Mediterranean gas to Europe. Although Turkey didn’t show readiness to work with the U.S against Russia, the Americans know that they cannot provoke Turkey. It is important for the U.S now to keep all its partners close.

 

'IT IS NOT A REALISTIC SCENARIO'

 

Stating that the scenario of Turkey taking sides with the USA is not very realistic, Sweidan noted that if such a situation occurs, Russia will face a reaction from Turkey regarding its interests in Syria. Sweiden said: "It is not realistic to adopt such scenario. Such Scenario is not acceptable for Russia and will lead to a reaction towards Turkey in Syria. First, it will for sure start working to stop any new Turkish military actions inside Syria. Second, depending on the level of Turkish-American cooperation in the crisis in eastern Europe, Russia may provoke all previous deals with Turkey and pressure Turkey to feel its national security is threatened."

 

THE EFFECT OF A POSSIBLE WAR ON ROJAVA

 

Sweidan pointed out that a possible Ukrainian war would also have an impact on Rojava, and said: "It is important to state here that a chance of war in the current situation is almost impossible, and it is more likely that a limited escalation may happen in the Donbas region accompanied by cyber-attacks. But if conditions changed and a war occurred the Rojava region will for sure face some impacts. I believe that, if war occurs Russia won’t just respond in Ukraine but rather it will try to affect several states where the U.S. has interests in. Russia knows that one of the goals of the U.S. in Syria is to prevent the Syrian leadership from having control all over Syria and preventing the Kurds in Syria from having a deal with the Syrian leadership. If war occurs in Ukraine, one of Russia’s responses will be fighting the U.S. in Syria through increasing President Assad’s hold of the country including in Northeast Syria. I believe Russia may try to pressure the Kurds to reach an agreement with the Syrian leadership."

 

 

MA / Selman Güzelyüz - Gözde Çağrı Özköse