KOBANÊ - Erdogan, who approached Russia when he could not get what he wanted from the USA, is expected to bring Ayn Isa, Manbij and Shehba to the table in his meeting with Putin in Sochi. Russia on the other hand, focuses on Idlib.
Proxy wars, which showed themselves at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, which has left its 10th year behind, have for a long time been directly replaced by the clash of international and regional powers. There is an increase in Syrian-oriented diplomatic traffic between the USA, Russia, Israel, Iran and Turkey, which are at the forefront of these international powers. While Turkey, which cannot get what it wanted from the USA, is getting ready to sit down with Russia, while Idlib, where the two countries are trying to play a dominant role, is on the verge of an explosion.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President of Russia President Putin will meet in Sochi on September 29. It is curiously expected that the meeting to be held between the two will stop the operation that the Damascus regime continues its preparations for Idlib with the support of Russia.
THE MEETING TO BE HELD IN SOCHI
It is seen that Turkey is in pursuit of an agreement of some sort with both the USA and Russia regarding Syria. Speaking at the United Nations (UN) meeting held in New York, USA, President Erdoğan drew Russia's attention especially with his messages on Idlib and Crimea. Erdogan, who was planning to meet with President Joe Biden during his visit to the USA, did not get what he wanted, and on his way back to Turkey, focused on Moscow again. The critical meeting, which is expected to take place two days later, will determine the course of Russia-Turkey relations, which have been tense recently.
SHOWDOWNS ON CRIMEA AND IDLIB
Pointing to both the military and economic dimensions of a possible operation against the city, Erdogan called the UN to "stop" with the words "We have neither the means nor the patience to meet the new immigration waves" on Idlib. With the statement "We will not allow the annexation of the people of Crimea", Turkey sided with NATO in opposition to Russian policies. This outburst, which caused strong reactions on the Russian front, was responded to by Syrian Foreign Relations Minister Feysal Miqdad. Miqdad, you made statements that Turkey, whose presence in Syria is described as "an act of occupation", should leave the country.
While the tension between the two countries continues to surface in similar ways, it is predicted that Syria will become more active after the meeting to be held in Sochi.
Having come to a deadlock in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey does not want to confront Russia, especially in Syria. Trying to delay the operations of Russia and the Syrian regime against other areas, especially Idlib, Turkey is trying to eliminate this threat, this time with international forces that it expects support from. However, it is seen that the Damascus regime, which continues its operations in the region, especially in Dera, put Idlib as a target. While taking control of Dera to a large extent provided an important motivation for the Damascus regime, it also caused contradictions among Turkey-backed groups.
MESSAGE TO TURKEY ON EFRIN AND EL BAB
All the efforts of Erdogan, who will meet with Putin in Sochi, in a process where the Damascus regime, which continues its attacks against other groups supported by Turkey, especially HTS, is preparing for an operation against Idlib, is interpreted an act of gaining time.
Russia, which is claimed to be preparing to break the Sochi ceasefire signed with Turkey on March 5, 2020, wants to pave the way for Damascus in order to take some strategic districts from Turkey the groups supported by Turkey as it did before. At this point, Russia gave Turkey a message that their reach is not limited with only Idlib by bombing Idlib, Afrin, El Bab, Zaviye and Cisir Şuğur.
WILL THE OPERATION AGAINST IDLIB BE PREVENTED?
Seeing the determination of Russia and the Syrian regime for the operation, Turkey aims to prevent the Idlib crisis by at least reducing the scope of the operation in Sochi, which will be the scene of the meeting that will untie the knot. While military shipments to the region by Russia and the Syrian regime intensify, Turkey's assurance to radical groups will also become a matter of discussion if Cisir Shuğur and other regions in Idlib come under the control of the Syrian regime. In this sense, while the Sochi meeting raises the debate on whether the Idlib operation will be prevented, possible ways that Turkey will resort to to get rid of it are also calculated.
NEGOTITATIONS ON NORTH AND EAST SYRIA
It is also possible that negotiations on Northern and Eastern Syria over Idlib will be on the agenda during the meeting. In its current position, Turkey can negotiate with Russia over the Ayn Isa, Manbij and Shehba. Considering that it is not satisfied with the developments in Syria, Russia's entering into a new negotiation with Turkey is another scenario not far away.
MA / Nazım Daştan