Violent clashes resumed between Azerbaijan and Armenia, after the 4 days of clashes between the two countries back in 2016. Both countries resumed a state of emergency and preparation for war. Both countries are making calls to international power, asking for permission while accusing each other. The fact that Turkey got involved in the war to come from day one, providing all  kinds of support for Azerbaijan attracts attention. We asked journalist Aykan Sever, who lived in Armenia for a while and knows the region closely, about the developments in the South Caucasus. Seven underlined that the possible war serves everyone's purpose.

 

A FLUNKED GOVERNMENT

 

Stating that the 4 day conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan back in 2016 is now organized by Turkey, and in a more comprehensive manner, Sever said: "Erdogan makes claims about many places you can think of, ranging from Libya, Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and even Yemen, with the ambition to become an imperial state in general. He defines this as 'our conquest culture'. He thinks he is doing the work of God. He wasn't able to succeed outside of Turkey, but he managed to create a dictatorship in Turkey.  He developed the army and the armed force to a certain extent. He allied with jihadists in Syria, creating an army for himself and advanced one more step towards his goal to be an imperial power. He couldn't reach his goals economically. could not reach natural resources such as oil and natural gas. At least he didn't get enough of them. It is said that he took 10-12 billion dolars from a Libyan bank. He probably receieved money from Azerbaijan and Qatar too. Today, as seen in the dollar and euro exchange rate, he could not achieve his goal and he now has a flunked government."

 

ERDOĞAN WON'T ACCEPT IT EVEN IF ALİYEV DID

 

Reminding of the agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the past, journalist Aykan Sever continued as follows: There is an agreement that the Minsk Group had signed by both sides before. It was accepted that 5 regions out of 7 regions outside of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is called "occupied", should be given to Azerbaijan, and the 2 regions with connections in between remain in Armenia.  But even if Aliyev accepts this possibility by accident, Erdogan will not accept it. In other words, Erdoğan wants to get this to the point of solutionlessness. Probably, Erdogan will continue the war as much as they can and try to cut something from the Azerbaijani society. Although not clear, there are such rumors. Turkey has increased its military aid after the war in July, giving military training and exercises were held together. It is said that he intends to turn this into something more permanent."

 

TURKEY WANTS TO ESTABLISH A MILITARY BASE

 

Sever said: "There is a rumour that Turkey wants to establish two military base near Nakhcevan and Caspian Sea. In this way, Turkey will be expanding its area of influence and transform a country under the influence of Russia into a de facto colony. The second objective is to make them sell state companies of oil and gas to Turkey through privatization. Erdoğan doesn't have a role in this individually, but he is using some intermediary companies for that. If he can manage this, a country under the influence of Russia will be a de facto colony under Turkey's control."

 

TURKEY MIGHT USE ARMED GROUPS

 

Sharing his observations of the mutual accusations that armed groups were deployed from Syria, Sever said: "There is nothing concrete that I have seen but the Armenian side is publishing some photos and videos. But we can say that Turkey is capable of it, this is how Turkey operates. They might not like that Azerbaijan is secular. They used it against the Kurdish too. They are motivated by the Sunni Islam issue. Turkey saw the opportunity to be a 'great military power' here. And Turkey is presenting this as a threat to Europe. A similar news was publiched back in April 2016 clashes with the title 'PKK came to Karabakh from Qandil'. This is clearly a propaganda material. Armenia once claimed that Haydar Aliyev is Kurdish and he had a role in the establishment of the PKK so why would they help us?"

 

INTERNATIONAL POWERS MAY USE THIS CONFLICT

 

Commenting on how the issue might develop, Sever said: "Unless the issue is resolved, the international powers are bound to use this conflict. This is inevitable. Unless a solution is found, these countries will lose their identities and democracies if they even have it."

 

 

MA / Sedat Yılmaz